ISRAEL/USA/IRAN/RUSSIA: Two articles and you are the judge...Is a political Game afoot?!

American expert: U.S. ‘green light’ for Israeli attack on Iran depends on ‘whether it can get the job done’

 

Walter Russell Mead, one of America’s foremost foreign policy gurus, tells Haaretz Iran may soon offer compromise formulas aimed at 'driving a wedge' between Israel and the U.S.

 

By Chemi Shalev | Mar.11, 2012 | 1:29 PM

Israel Air Force F-16 fighter jet. Photo by Ilan Assayag (Photo Above)

U.S. President Barack Obama is capable of ordering a military attack on Iran, but the U.S. would probably prefer to yield to Israel if it was convinced that it “could get the job done” – this is the assessment of Walter Russell Mead, a renowned expert on American foreign policy.

“The U.S. has a lot of things to think about in a lot of places and I’m sure Obama feels that he has enough wars in the Middle East already,” Mead said in a conversation with Haaretz.

But he said that if America became convinced that an attack on Iran is necessary and that only the U.S. is capable of carrying it out successfully, then Obama “would not hesitate to pull the trigger.”

Mead said that it is probably the Republicans themselves, and not Israel, that has turned Iran into a partisan issue in American politics, though it is unwise for Israel “to collaborate” with this Republican agenda, which is harmful to Israel’s short and long term interests.

At the same time, Mead said that he believes both Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu realized this year that they need a “more correct relationship” than the confrontational mode in which they found themselves during the 2011 AIPAC Conference, when Obama spoke of the 1967 borders.

“After spending the first half of his Administration having Prime Minister Netanyahu regular beat him at the game of American politics,” Mead said, “Obama has gotten tired of that and he has a better sense of what he needs to do so as not to keep losing control of the policy process in the U.S.”

Mead, whom the New York Times once described as “one of the country's liveliest thinkers about America's role in the world," said that Israel needs a leader who is a “Tony Blair type” who can work well with both parties; but he also said that, as far as he can see, it was Obama, and not Netanyahu, who was mainly responsible for the initial friction in the relationship between the two.

Mead said that AIPAC’s fortunes rise and fall in accordance with Israel’s position in American public opinion. He added, though, that if he was heading AIPAC he would be thinking about how to sustain this support because “if a lobby group starts to think that it is the tail that wags the dog it will find out sooner or later that that dog isn’t so cooperative anymore.”

On Syria, Mead said that while he is not privy to the secret information on which the White House bases its policy, “I think the line that Assad is on the way out soon has been a little bit overplayed.”

Mead, who has authored several widely-acclaimed books on American foreign policy, said that until now, the confrontation with Iran has “benefitted from a certain sense of clarity” because of Tehran’s refusal to negotiate. But with Iran showing signs that it may soon “start to offer U.S. compromises” - things will become murkier. Tehran, he believes will be trying to drive a diplomatic wedge between both the U.S. and Israel and between the U.S. and Europe.

Mead, who was fiercely critical of Obama’s foreign policy during the first part of his term, said that the president had changed and is now “a much more skilled and experienced leader who is much more comfortable with the use of force. More than once, he has not hesitated to pull the trigger.”

Mead said that Obama has become “more aware of the need for a forward presence for the U.S. and less convinced that a lower U.S. presence would solve all the world’s problems.”

Mead said that Obama is resolute about denying Iran nuclear weapons, adding “people often underestimate the degree to which Obama sees nuclear nonproliferation as a cornerstone of American security strategy and of the kind of legacy that he would like to leave. And my impression is that the Administration accepts the analysis that an Iranian nuclear bomb pretty well ends any likely prospects for successful non-proliferation activities.”

Mead said that it was hard to gauge in advance how long the American public would sustain its support for a military attack against Iran. "If Israel attacks Iran, and Iran attacks American targets, you might bet a 'Pearl Harbor' response against an unprovoked attack by a vicious enemy. There is a tremendous amount of residual ill-will toward Iran in America,” he added.

Putin: Israel, Russia strive for peaceful resolution to Iran nuclear issue

 

Speaking at joint press conference with Netanyahu, Russian leader says Israel-Russia ties based on 'deep friendship'; PM: Israel, Palestinians must resume peace talks.

 

By Eli Shvidler | Jun.25, 2012 | 5:35 PM

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and his host, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following meeting in Jerusalem, June 25, 2012. Photo by AFP

Israel and Russia will continue consultations geared at resolving the nuclear standoff with Iran through peaceful means, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a joint press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, adding that Israel-Russia relations are based on a "deep friendship."

Putin arrived in Israel earlier in the day, in what Israeli officials hoped would be an opportunity to recruit Russia's government to join their efforts against Iran's nuclear program.

Speaking following a lengthy meeting between Netanyahu and Putin later in the day, the Russian leader said that he felt he was "among friends," adding that the ties between Israel and Russia were ones of "deep friendship, not something that will pass, and that will endure in the future."

"We held a thorough discussion of the issue of Iran's nuclear program, and, even in the current situation, I estimate that we will continue to consult and work together, and that these issues will be resolved peacefully for the good of all sides," Putin added.

Netanyahu spoke at the press conference for the need to restart peace talks with the Palestinians, saying: "One of two things can happen. Either [Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas comes over here, or I go over there. Either way, we must start talking."

Alluding to the standoff with Iran, Netanyahu said at the joint press conference that there "are those who wish to deny the Holocaust, and there are those who erect monuments to honor the actions of the Red Army, which saved Jews in the Holocaust."

The premier was referring to a visit by Putin to the city of Netanya earlier Monday, where he inaugurated a new memorial to the Red Army.

During a speech given at the memorial, Putin called the Holocaust "the darkest, most shameful chapter in human history," and praised the Soviet Army for being the one to "smash the head of the Nazi monster, allowing all nations to survive.”

Putin added that he was “very excited” and thanked Netanyahu, Peres and “all of his Israeli friends” for the establishment of the monument.

President Shimon Peres was the main Israeli representative at the dedication ceremony. He praised the Soviet Union's actions against Nazi Germany, as well as the current Russian government's efforts to promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians. 

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